SCAN Bay Area weekly update 7/19/23

This blog post describes data collected at 8 wastewater treatment plants in the Greater Bay Area of San Francisco, CA, including Sacramento, that are partners in the SCAN project which began in late 2020.

All samples picked up by the couriers as of 7/17/23 have been processed and their data are on the site: wbe.stanford.edu. The data from the SCAN sites are also on data.wastewaterscan.org. Please email Amanda Bidwell at albidwel@stanford.edu if you identify any bugs on the site. ‌

SARS-CoV-2 N gene concentrations at half of the SCAN sites are similar to what they were two weeks ago. Concentrations are between 10,000 and 100,000 copies/g. Below is a chart from Sunnyvale where we are seeing increasing concentrations of SARS-CoV-2.

We ran a 2-week look period trend analysis on the plants for the N gene target using methods outlined in this peer-reviewed paper by our team (link to paper). The 2-week look period trend analysis on SARS-CoV-2  at SCAN plants indicates a significant upward trend at Gilroy, Oceanside SF, Sacramento and Sunnyvale, and no trend at the other plants.

Here are all the data from all the SCAN plants for the last two years. You can access the graph here. The population weighted average across the SCAN plants is shown in black.  

Below is a chart showing the National Levels benchmarks superimposed on the SARS-CoV-2 N gene data from the SCAN sites since the beginning of 2023. Currently most SCAN sites SARS-CoV-2 N gene concentrations are in the bottom third level. You can access the graph here.

The ratio of the XBB* mutations/N across SCAN plants is shown in the chart below.  This chart comes from data.wastewaterscan.org (link here to the chart). As the ratio reaches 100%, it suggests that all the SARS-CoV-2 genomes in wastewater have the XBB* mutations. These data indicate that the regional average ratio XBB* mutations/N is ~80-90%.  These data suggest that the majority of infections across the SCAN communities are caused by XBB*.  

Here is a plot from San Jose showing the relative proportions of different variants inferred from sequencing the entire genome of SARS-CoV-2. You can see the information on XBB.1.16 in the deep violet color. The proportion of XBB.1.16  in San Jose samples is less than 10% in the most recent samples (first week of July). The most recent samples processed from Oceanside had similar levels to those from San Jose, and those from Sacramento showed about 25% of sequences to belong to XBB*. The remainder of the sequences from the plants is mostly other XBB*.

Influenza A (IAV) RNA  concentrations are very low across the SCAN plants. Concentrations are generally non-detects in samples from recent weeks. The link to the chart below is here if you would like to interact with it.‌ The population weighted average line across all the SCAN plants is shown in black.

The 2-week look period trend analysis on IAV RNA at these plants indicates no trend at all the SCAN plants. The heat map below shows the recent occasional occurrence of low-level detections for IAV over the last ~30 days.

‌Influenza B (IBV) RNA is sporadically detected at low concentrations at the SCAN plants. Each plant is represented by a row (y-axis), and dates are shown along the x-axis. Blue indicates a non-detect, and darker orange/red is proportional to concentration with the highest values being darkest.  A white means no sample was collected. Here is the link to the heat map chart - the linked chart will update automatically as more data are added to the site.

RSV RNA has not been detected in most samples in the past week. This plot shows data from all the SCAN sites together since last winter and can be access here. The black line is the population weighted average.

The 2-week look period trend analysis on RSV RNA at these plants indicates a downward trend at Southeast SF, an upward trend at Sunnyvale, and no trend at the remaining SCAN plants. The heat map below shows the recent occasional occurrence of low-level detections for RSV over the last ~30 days.

‌‌HMPV (human metapneumovirus) RNA  concentrations continue to decline at most of plants in SCAN. Below are charts showing data from all the SCAN plants together (link here to this chart if you want to interact with it).

The 2-week look period trend analysis on HMPV RNA at SCAN plants indicates a significant downward trend at San Jose, and no trend at the other plants.

Below is a chart showing the National Levels benchmarks superimposed on the HMPV data from the SCAN sites since the beginning of 2023. Currently all SCAN sites HMPV concentrations in the bottom third level.

Norovirus GII RNA concentrations are shown in the chart below; all the SCAN plants are shown together. The population weighted average line is shown in black, and that line shows a slight decrease over the last couple weeks.  You can interact with the chart of all the plants at this link.

The 2-week look period trend analysis on HuNoV GII RNA at SCAN plants indicates a significant downward trend at Palo Alto, San Jose and Southeast SF, and no trend at the other plants.

We've observed non-detects in the last 12 weeks for MPXV DNA at the SCAN plants, with the exception of one sample on 5/7/23 (Silicon Valley Clean Water) and one sample on 6/18/23 (Southeast SF) (shown in orange below). The heat map show all the SCAN sites as a row, and each date as a column. The color blue means the sample was non-detect for MPXV DNA and the colors get darker with higher concentrations. White indicates no sample was collected. The charts shows all the data we have collected, almost a year's worth of data.  You can access the chart here.

There was recently a national warning that we might see a resurgence in Mpox cases. The data from wastewater suggests that is not the case presently at the SCAN plants.